Integrating the Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, and Granular Financial Ratios at PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk for Early Fraud Detection

Authors

  • Nindya Farah Dwi Puspitasari Universitas Terbuka
  • Nopi Tikasari Universitas Terbuka
  • Rahayu Lestari Universitas Terbuka

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33830/jfba.v6i1.14703.2026

Keywords:

Financial Statement Fraud, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, Financial Ratio, Early Detection

Abstract

This research investigates the early detection of financial statement fraud at PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA) by identifying quantitative traces of manipulation years before public exposure. Although accounting-based fraud screening models are well established, prior evidence provides limited insight into how fraud risk accumulates over time at the account level, particularly in emerging markets where high-quality fraud labels are scarce. Employing a quantitative case study approach, the study investigates the early detection of financial statement fraud at AISA using secondary audited data from 2012 to 2016. Data analysis integrates the Altman Z-Score model for financial distress, the Beneish M-Score model for earnings manipulation, and granular financial ratios. Results show that while the composite manipulation score remained in the non-manipulator range, several M-Score indices exhibit red-flag classifications, the Z-score declined to 1.806 in 2015, accounts receivable-to-sales increased to 0.366 by 2016, and inventory days rose to 153. The practical implication is that aggregate manipulation scores may mask subtle but material account-level anomalies. Therefore, auditors and market participants should adopt integrated monitoring that combines distress screening with targeted forensic attention to receivables, inventory, and depreciation-related accounts to improve early detection of potential misstatements.

References

Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x

Achmad, T., Ghozali, I., Helmina, M. R. A., Hapsari, D. I., & Pamungkas, I. D. (2022). Detecting Fraudulent Financial Reporting Using the Fraud Hexagon Model: Evidence from the Banking Sector in Indonesia. Economies, 11(5), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11010005

Amin, Q. A., & Cumming, D. J. (2023). Regulatory reforms, board independence and earnings quality. Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money, 88, 101840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101840

Arum, E. D. P., Wijaya, R., Wahyudi, I., & Brilliant, A. B. (2023). Corporate Governance and Financial Statement Fraud during the COVID-19: Study of Companies under Special Monitoring in Indonesia. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 16(7), 318. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16070318

Aviantara, R. (2021). Scoring the financial distress and the financial statement fraud of Garuda Indonesia with «DDCC» as the financial solutions. Journal of Modelling in Management, 18(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.1108/jm2-01-2020-0017

Awwad, B., & Razia, B. (2021). Adapting Altman’s model to predict the performance of the Palestinian industrial sector. Journal of Business and Socio-Economic Development, 1(2), 149-164. https://doi.org/10.1108/jbsed-05-2021-0063

Beasley, M. S., Hermanson, D. R., Carcello, J. V., & Neal, T. L. (2010). Fraudulent financial reporting: 1998–2007: An analysis of U.S. public companies. Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission (COSO).

Beneish, M. D. (1999). The detection of earnings manipulation. Financial Analysts Journal, 55(5), 24–36. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v55.n5.2296

Braunsberger, C., & Aschauer, E. (2025). Corporate Failure Prediction: A Literature Review of Altman Z-Score and Machine Learning Models Within a Technology Adoption Framework. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(8), 465. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080465

Burcă, V., Popa, A. F., Sahlian, D.-N., Traşcă, D., & Bobițan, N. (2022). Modelling the Impact of Earnings Management on the Probability of Financial Statements Fraud. Engineering Economics, 33(5), 521-539. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.33.5.30672

Capraş, I. L., Achim, M. V., Hint, M. Ștefan, & Găban, L. (2025). How can data manipulation matter in predicting the failure risk? Evidence from Romanian companies. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 26(1), 110-126. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2025.22373

Chakrabarty, B., Moulton, P. C., Pugachev, L., & Wang, X. (2024). Catch me if you can: In search of accuracy, scope, and ease of fraud prediction. Review of Accounting Studies, 30(2), 1268-1308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-024-09854-4

Cressey, D. R. (1953). Other people’s money: A study in the social psychology of embezzlement. Free Press.

Dechow, P. M., Ge, W., Larson, C. R., & Sloan, R. G. (2011). Predicting material accounting misstatements. Contemporary Accounting Research, 28(1), 17–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.2010.01041.x

Do, Q., Cao, N. D., Gounopoulos, D., & Newton, D. (2023). Environmental Concern, Regulations and Board Diversity. Review of Corporate Finance, 3, 99. https://doi.org/10.1561/114.00000037

Dyck, A., Morse, A., & Zingales, L. (2023). How pervasive is corporate fraud? Review of Accounting Studies, 29(1), 736. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-022-09738-5

Ebaid, I. E. (2023). Board characteristics and the likelihood of financial statements fraud: empirical evidence from an emerging market. Future Business Journal, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-023-00218-z

Eisenhardt, K. M. (1989). Building theories from case study research. Academy of Management Review, 14(4), 532–550. https://doi.org/10.2307/258557

Fenyves, V., Pisula, T., & Tarnóczi, T. (2023). Investigation of accounting manipulation using the Beneish model: Hungarian case. Economics & Sociology, 16(4), 347. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789x.2023/16-4/18

Forddanta, D. H., & Prasetyo, H. (2019, March 27). Hasil investigasi ungkap banyak kejanggalan di laporan keuangan Tiga Pilar (AISA). Kontan.co.id.

Foster, G. (2023). Real earnings management in the motion picture industry: strengthening the inferences from academic research. Review of Accounting Studies, 28(3), 1250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-023-09798-1

Georgios, D. K., & Styliani, T. (2023). MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS. A FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF A BIG CASE STUDY IN EMERGING MARKETS DURING THE PANDEMIC. International Journal of Management & Entrepreneurship Research, 5(11), 836. https://doi.org/10.51594/ijmer.v5i11.601

Hájek, P., Novotny, J., & Munk, M. (2026). Financial statement fraud detection using topic-driven financial sentiment analysis. Decision Support Systems, 203, 114615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2026.114615

Jaswadi, J., Purnomo, H., & Sumiadji, S. (2022). Financial statement fraud in Indonesia: a longitudinal study of financial misstatement in the pre- and post-establishment of financial services authority. Journal of Financial Reporting & Accounting, 22(3), 634. https://doi.org/10.1108/jfra-10-2021-0336

Khatun, A., Ghosh, R., & Kabir, S. (2022). Earnings manipulation behavior in the banking industry of Bangladesh: the strategical implication of Beneish M-score model. Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, 40(3), 302. https://doi.org/10.1108/agjsr-03-2022-0001

Li, W., & Xu, X. (2023). Ensemble learning algorithm - research analysis on the management of financial fraud and violation in listed companies. Decision Making Applications in Management and Engineering, 6(2), 722. https://doi.org/10.31181/dmame622023785

Lokanan, M., & Ramzan, S. (2024). Predicting financial distress in TSX-listed firms using machine learning algorithms. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2024.1466321

MacCarthy, J. (2017). Using Altman Z-score and Beneish M-score Models to Detect Financial Fraud and Corporate Failure: A Case Study of Enron Corporation. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 6(6), 159-166. https://doi.org/10.5923/j.ijfa.20170606.01

Maniatis, A. (2021). Detecting the probability of financial fraud due to earnings manipulation in companies listed in Athens Stock Exchange Market. Journal of Financial Crime, 29(2), 603. https://doi.org/10.1108/jfc-04-2021-0083

Marsenne, M., Ismail, T., Taqi, M., & Hanifah, I. A. (2023). An Analysis of Financial Distress Determinants in Indonesia’s Micro and Small Enterprises. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(11). https://doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i11.3327

Munteanu, V., Zuca, M.-R., Horaicu, A., Florea, L.-A., Poenaru, C.-E., & Anghel, G. (2024). Auditing the risk of financial fraud using the red flags technique. Applied Sciences, 14(2), 757. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14020757

Musanovic, E. B., & Halilbegović, S. (2021). Financial statement manipulation in failing Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 8(4), 556. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v8i4.692

Narsa, N. P. D. R. H., Afifa, L. M. E., & Wardhaningrum, O. A. (2023). Fraud triangle and earnings management based on the modified M-score: A study on manufacturing company in Indonesia. Heliyon, 9(2), e13649. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13649

Özari, Ç., Can, E. N., & Demirkale, Ö. (2025). Financial fraud detection with Altman Z-Score and Beneish M-Score via random forest: Verified by Borsa Istanbul fines (2018–2022). SAGE Open, 15(4), Article 21582440251386174. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251386174

Pengadilan Negeri Jakarta Selatan. (2021, August 5). Putusan Nomor 1028/Pid.Sus/2020/PN JKT.SEL [Putusan]. Direktori Putusan Mahkamah Agung Republik Indonesia.

Ponce, H. G., González, J. C., & Al‐Mohareb, M. (2023). EXAMINING THE READABILITY OF ACCOUNTING NARRATIVES DERIVED FROM EARNINGS MANAGEMENT. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 24(6), 1080. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2023.20447

Ridwan, Y. A. (2023). DETECTION OF FRAUDULENT FINANCIAL STATEMENT USING HEXAGON FRAUD THEORY A LITERATURE REVIEW [Review of DETECTION OF FRAUDULENT FINANCIAL STATEMENT USING HEXAGON FRAUD THEORY A LITERATURE REVIEW]. JURNAL AKUNTANSI DAN AUDITING, 20(1), 119. Diponegoro University. https://doi.org/10.14710/jaa.20.1.119-136

Saraiva, G. O., Ferreira, J. J., & Alves, M. do C. G. (2024). Turnaround, Decline, and Strategic Posture of SME: Empirical Evidence. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-01734-1

Schneider, M., & Brühl, R. (2023). Disentangling the black box around CEO and financial information-based accounting fraud detection: machine learning-based evidence from publicly listed U.S. firms. Journal of Business Economics, 93(9), 1591. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-023-01136-w

Shahana, T., Lavanya, V., & Bhat, A. R. (2023). State of the art in financial statement fraud detection: A systematic review [Review of State of the art in financial statement fraud detection: A systematic review]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 192, 122527. Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122527

Sodnomdavaa, T., Lkhagvadorj, G., & (authors as listed on article). (2025). Financial statement fraud detection through an integrated machine learning and explainable AI framework. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 19(1), 13.

Song, X., Liu, X., & Chen, H. (2024). Driving force of value reversal in Chinese overleveraged firms: The mechanism and path of private placement. PLoS ONE, 19(5). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0303544

Steingen, L., & Löw, E. (2025). Using Machine Learning to Detect Financial Statement Fraud: A Cross-Country Analysis Applied to Wirecard AG. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(11), 605. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18110605

Tarjo, T., Prasetyono, P., Sakti, E., Pujiono, P., Isa, Y. M., & Safkaur, O. (2023). PREDICTING FRAUDULENT FINANCIAL STATEMENT USING CASH FLOW SHENANIGANS. Verslas Teorija Ir Praktika, 24(1), 33. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2023.15283

Thanathamathee, P., Sawangarreerak, S., Chantamunee, S., & Nizam, D. N. M. (2024). SHAP-Instance Weighted and Anchor Explainable AI: Enhancing XGBoost for Financial Fraud Detection. Emerging Science Journal, 8(6), 2404. https://doi.org/10.28991/esj-2024-08-06-016

Toit, E. du. (2023). The red flags of financial statement fraud: a case study. Journal of Financial Crime, 31(2), 311. https://doi.org/10.1108/jfc-02-2023-0028

Tümmler, M., & Quick, R. (2025). How to detect fraud in an audit: a systematic review of experimental literature [Review of How to detect fraud in an audit: a systematic review of experimental literature]. Management Review Quarterly. Springer Science+Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11301-024-00480-7

Wareza, M. (2019, March 27). Astaga! Tiga Pilar disebut gelembungkan keuangan Rp 4 T. CNBC Indonesia. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20190327082221-17-63104/astaga-tiga-pilar-disebut-gelembungkan-keuangan-rp-4-t

Yadav, A. Kr. S., & Sora, M. (2021). An optimized deep neural network-based financial statement fraud detection in text mining. 3C Empresa Investigación y Pensamiento Crítico, 10(4), 77. https://doi.org/10.17993/3cemp.2021.100448.77-105

Yadav, R., Patil, A., & Sengupta, R. (2023). An analysis of Satyam case using bankruptcy and fraud detection models. SocioEconomic Challenges, 7(4), 24–35. https://doi.org/10.61093/sec.7(4).24-35.2023

Downloads

Published

2026-04-01

How to Cite

Puspitasari, N. F. D., Tikasari, N., & Lestari, R. (2026). Integrating the Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, and Granular Financial Ratios at PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk for Early Fraud Detection. Journal of Financial and Behavioural Accounting, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.33830/jfba.v6i1.14703.2026

Issue

Section

Articles

Similar Articles

1 2 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.