Application of The Fuzzy Ruey Chyn Tsaur Method to The Time Series Data (Case Study: Total Exports In East Kalimantan From January 2018 To May 2021)
Keywords: Average Based, MAPE, Markov Chain, Sturges
Abstract
Markov chains are stochastic processes in which current events depend only on events one step back. The transition probability matrix shows the probability of movement between states in a Markov chain process. The transition likelihood matrix can be used to help forecast future changes. This research has the purpose of forecasting using the fuzzy Ruey Chyn Tsaur method combined with the Markov chain concept. In this study, the determination of interval length was carried out using Sturges and averages based. The results showed that the value of MAPE based on Sturges (5.95%) is lower than the value based on the average (6.02%). In June 2021, forecasting of the total exports was obtained at USD 1,687.17 million for the Sturges method and USD 1,728 million for average based.
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