Business and Policy Strategies in Rice Import Management: Lessons from Indonesia

Abstract

Rice imports constitute a critical element of Indonesia’s food security strategy, but prior research has predominantly addressed the economic determinants of import demand, with limited attention to the government’s strategic management role. This study investigates the influence of domestic rice production, international rice prices, exchange rates, and population growth on Indonesia’s rice imports from Thailand and Vietnam between 2004 and 2023 and analyzes the business and policy strategies employed to maintain national food security. By employing a mixed-methods approach, the research integrates panel-data regression using annual data from Thailand and Vietnam with semi-structured interviews conducted with policymakers. Quantitative results indicate that exchange rates and population growth significantly impact Indonesia’s rice import volumes, whereas domestic rice production and international rice prices do not exhibit statistically significant individual effects. Qualitative findings reveal that rice import management extends beyond economic factors and is operationalized through three complementary government roles: facilitator, regulator, and catalyst. In the facilitator role, the government coordinates procurement, licensing, logistics, and food reserves; as a regulator, it oversees import quotas, quality standards, and compliance; and as a catalyst, it enhances institutional coordination and long-term food security through deliberate governance. By integrating econometric analysis with policymakers’ insights, the study demonstrates that rice import decisions are shaped by both market dynamics and institutional capacities. The findings contribute to the business and public policy literature by presenting an integrated framework for strategic rice import management that advances national food security and supply chain resilience.

Keywords: Rice imports, Government strategy, Panel data, Mixed methods